Apparently, the efforts of aboriginal and environmental groups, photographers and filmmakers, and diverse citizens opposing key pipelines in Canada and the US are having some effect. Judging by the pep talks flying around industry gatherings and the op-ed pages of conservative media outlets, the industry is seriously worried about the Tar Sands' future. Even a recent article in the industry publication Alberta Oil Magazine about several major proposed pipeline routes from the Tar Sands
What's at stake is three (potentially four) major new pipelines or expansions designed to amp up the export capacity for the Tar Sands to both the US and Asia. Together they could justify a doubling of total Tar Sands output.
But it's the First Nations opposition to the project that presents its greatest challenge - one that may well prove insurmountable. Over 60 nations have lined up together against the Northern Gateway - many of them situated along the pipeline or tanker corridor, thus holding considerable constitutional and legal power over the project through their ancestral title and rights.
TransCanada is also facing an uphill battle for its Keystone XL expansion to refineries in the US. The 590,000 barrel/day existing Keystone line is currently shut down under presidential order, following a pair of recent leaks in North Dakota and Kansas. The associate pipeline safety administrator with the U.S. Department of Transportation, Jeffrey Wiese, recently wrote to TransCanada executives: "After evaluating the foregoing preliminary findings of fact, I find that the continued operation of the pipeline without corrective action would be hazardous to life, property and the environment."
These troubles couldn't come at a worse time for TransCanada, as they are in the midst of seeking approval from regulators to build the expansion Keystone XL line. The Environmental Protection Agency has been highly critical of the proposal to the US State Department, which is charged with making the final decision on the project. According to a recent article in the Globe and Mail, "For the oil patch, the possibility that the XL project will falter is so outside expectations that many haven’t even considered it. Indeed, companies have already signed up for the majority of its capacity." And yet, to the industry's incredulous horror, failure is now a distinct possibility for the Keystone XL.
Campaigners, industry and media have started discussing the battle over these pipelines in terms of "choke points". The idea is that Tar Sands expansion could be curbed indirectly by choking off its avenues for growth - and it has real strategic merit, enough to cause the industry to lose some sleep. Without these new corridors to move diluted bitumen, Tar Sands expansion is unnecessary, as the Financial Post remarked recently in a piece about the “Oilsands: What’s Really Going On” conference in Edmonton.
- KBOO